Angelique Dukunde
University of Rwanda, African Center of Excellence in Data Science, Ruhande
Title: Prevalence of hypertension in Rwandan population using Gibbs method
Biography
Biography: Angelique Dukunde
Abstract
Hypertension in Africa was estimated at 30.8% in 2010 with a dramatic increase in some regions ranging between 36.2%-77.3% (Adeloye Basquill, 2014). In Rwanda, the prevalence of hypertension was estimated to 15.0% in 2015, (Nahimana et al., 2017). In Rwanda, there is no model that can help decision-makers to know the behavior of hypertension in the future. The objective of this study was to predict the prevalence of hypertension in Rwanda for 10 years using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and other related diseases. Data used were from , Gibbs method for sampling helped to find the transition matrix. It was found that the prevalence of hypertension, tobacco use, overweight, obesity, and another subject will be predicted 17.82%, 26.26%, 17.13%, 4.80%, and 33.99% in 2025 respectively. This implies that Rwanda needs to take the measure of healthy diets and physical exercises to prevent and reduce the prevalence of the diseases.